



I suspect the vast majority of media people have never heard
of the Cluetrain Manifesto. I think it
should be mandatory reading for anyone working in a media or marketing
organization. I find it incredible that
10 years ago the authors of the Cluetrain Manifesto had the foresight to envision
the impact the Internet would have on the whole of society.
To commemorate the 10th anniversary, today as many as 95 individuals will be writing a blog post on one of the theses. I chose to write on thesis #6: The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media.
This one thesis foretells of the massive changes that are now occurring in the media and marketing industries. It recognizes that the Internet revolutionizes communications, making one-to-one and one-to-many conversations possible and therefore turning the unidirectional mass media into antiquated and ultimately irrelevant industries.
Mass media has served two functions, the first being the delivery of news, information and entertainment to an audience. The second function is to aggregate that audience and sell advertising to marketers. The Internet has caused both of these functions to become commoditized. There is no longer the need to have a multimillion dollar printing press or broadcast license in order to serve either of these functions.
Not only are the mediums themselves antiquated, the marketing models for the promoting of brands goods and services are now ineffective as well. To me, this thesis represents the single greatest impact on our society. There is no question as to whether this thesis is right or wrong - the question is - how we deal with this new reality.
Congratulations Cluetrain Manifesto authors…ten years have
only stood to validate many of your theses.
By Jose Leal
Television revenues a cliff-hanger
Ok, then how about rating the marriage proposal itself? Yes, on a scale of 1 to 10 – wikiDOMO style.
That’s exactly what we did this past weekend at the Hamilton-Halton Fall Wedding Show. Our friends at Beau Monde Productions put on a great show as record numbers turned out at the Hamilton Convention Centre for all things “wedding”.
It was all in good fun, as we put eight couples in front of hundreds of "fans" and through the “wikiDOMO Rating Challenge”. They showed off how well they really know each other – or not!
A highlight for me was a great couple where a man of wisdom rated his fiancé’s cooking as “8”. When poked further by our energetic host, he admitted that “her cooking is not good, but I didn’t want to hurt her feelings” (I’m paraphrasing here). If we all could, I think he deserved a “10” for that answer! Even better was the fact that his fiancé actually rated her own cooking at a … well, it was actually off the wikiDOMO scale… a zero! It’s a good thing that the prizes for our four winning couples included dinners at some great local restaurants, including Pastacino and La Piazza Allegra.
So, where is the feature to rate your spouse’s cooking on wikiDOMO? If you want to score brownie-points, or just make a point… we are going to stay out of that one for now! But, if your spouse is a chef or cooks as a business, then we’ll have some good news for both of you soon.
Congratulations and a lifetime of happiness to all our winning couples!
This is my last post in the series. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I want to wrap-up by looking at the newspaper industry from the perspective of the all important reader. Most people I talk to about the state of newspapers have a clear opinion - the majority believe newspapers will survive this period of turmoil. Many of them tell me that the newspapers survived the impact of radio and television and they will survive the Internet. As you can tell by the title of this post I don’t agree. But, no matter what they say, or the reasons they give me, I can’t help but think, that most of us just can’t imagine a world without the comfort of a newspaper.
The Newspaper Reading Experience
Like many people, I enjoy while still in pjs sitting down on Saturday and/or Sunday mornings with a cup of coffee and one or even two newspapers. Some days it goes on for hours. Between breakfast and the paper(s), before you know it it’s almost lunch time. It’s an experience that can’t yet be beat. There’s no arguing the numerous benefits of the print paper format - portability, archive-ability and so on.
However, greater access to news has changed our need for the daily paper. With the Internet at home, at work and now on the road, we can get a quick hit of the news at any time. In addition, we lead busier lives and most of us can’t find the time to read the paper during the week. We’re spending more and more time traveling and working, and the weekend is the only time we have to even try to read the newspaper.
As a consequence, there’s no doubt in my mind that the weekday editions of most newspapers will not exists in 5 to 10 years. As for the weekend editions, it will take longer for them to disappear. Few people, if any under the age of 25 are reading the paper with the frequency or passion of those of my generation. Once the baby boomers are gone, who will be left to enjoy the weekend paper reading experience?
The Environment
Readers are not yet fully aware of the impact that newspapers have on the environment. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), pulp and paper mills are among the worst polluters of any industry in the country. The impact is tremendous, from the billions of trees that are cut down each year, to the energy used to harvest and transport them to the mills. Compound that with the energy used to transport the paper to the presses and for the printing process; let’s not forget delivering it to your door or newspaper box.
I know that many of the trees that are cut down for paper are grown in farms that are well managed. I also know each day more and more paper is being recycled. But, the reality is that though certain aspects of the industry are improving, the full ecological impact far outweighs the benefits when there are alternatives that generate far less impact. At some point, the public will assess the environmental impact of the industry as irresponsible and act accordingly.
Reading Technology
I don’t think anyone disagrees with the fact that reading a print newspaper is much more convenient then reading on a computer. But, what if E-Ink technology finally delivers? And it soon will. We’re not far from the day where we will have large screen format mobile reading devices. They will allow us to read any web site via; Wi-Fi, WiMAX or high speed mobile telephone networks.
E-Ink readers are already here, but today’s devices like the Sony Reader and Amazon’s Kindle are targeted at the book reading market. New devices, such as the ReadiUS pictured above, will be more general in function, have longer battery lives and will support multiple wireless formats. As these devices are introduced they will quickly be adopted. Imagine reading anything, including the news, in your back yard on a bright sunny day for hours - how will print papers compete then? They won’t.
The Most Important Newspaper Reader
In the end, I don’t think the fate of newspapers will be dependent solely on the reading experience, lack of time, the environment or technology. I think the survival of the newspapers rests primarily in the hands of its most important readers. Those readers are the shareholders – whose focus is on reading the annual report. They understandably want their newspapers to continue to generate profits. Unfortunately, that’s at the risk of everything else.
Nearly 7 years ago, when working for Canoe / Sun Media, I attended a newspaper conference and while walking through the exhibits, I noticed a very interesting hand written poster. It went something like this…
“If the train companies of the early 20th century had understood that they were in the transportation business and not in the railway business they would have survived.”
That message stuck with me, and for years I worked to get the digital division and the print divisions to cooperate and realize they were in the same business – media – better yet, communications. Neither side would have anything to do with it. Each division had their own bottom line and that was paramount.
The reality is newspaper organizations don’t see themselves as media or communications companies. They are, and will remain newspaper companies until the last paper comes rolling off the press – and then just like the trains of old, we will fondly remember them and what they could have been, had they grasped an important but fundamental notion – change.
As I mentioned in the previous post (Part Four), flyer distribution has taken on a large part of the retail advertising market and there’s no going back. Today, major retailers all over North America use flyers as their primary means of marketing. Flyer distribution has become a key part of the newspaper revenue mix, and without them, most community newspapers would not be profitable.
What’s a flyer? A flyer is sometimes referred to as a circular or insert. They’re those wonderful standalone ads that bulk-up most newspapers in North America. Things are a little different in each part of the continent, but here in Toronto our weekly newspaper is about 10% news and 90% ads – with the vast majority of that being flyers.
What follows is a brief look at flyers, what they mean to consumers and more importantly what they mean to the newspaper industry:
1 - Timeliness
The flyer distribution business is less about timeliness in the sense of speed and much more about reach and repeatability. Getting flyers delivered every week to as many homes as possible is the key. It’s much harder than it looks and generally newspapers do it best.
Because newspapers have a regular delivery schedule they’re good at flyer distribution. Some of the best flyer delivery newspapers are the free community weeklies. This is because they tend to be total market coverage products - meaning that they are delivered to most homes in a geographic area - this offers their customers the broadest reach.
Since many community weeklies are delivered once a week, they have built strong consumer expectations and reading habits. That’s to say, many consumers now expect to see retail flyers delivered on a specific day of the week. This turns out to be both a blessing and a curse for the industry. Though a number of papers have tried to add additional days (for a number of reasons - the biggest being to grow volume), both the readers and the advertisers’ have resisted these changes. This makes the model limited by consumer/client habits, not to mention the physical limitations of the number of flyers a paper can hold.
As business requirements change and retailers need more flexibility the newspapers and their rigid flyer delivery model will become an increasing liability.
Do you think newspapers will be able to adjust their models in time?
2 - Efficiency
In the world of flyers, efficiency is measured by the percentage of the population you reach – and by that measurement newspaper flyers have been very efficient. Though they’re good at delivering flyers, they do have limitations. As most paid papers circulation declines, they’re reaching a smaller segment of the market, greatly diminishing their efficiency.
Even the free papers are running into reach issues because newspapers can’t easily deliver to apartment/condo buildings. As major metropolitan markets continue to increase residential densities the percentage of households that don’t receive free newspapers will grow.
As the newspaper industry has changed, so too has the demand on the distribution channel. In the past, if a community paper wasn’t delivered the only thing that a newspaper had to worry about was the call from an annoyed resident. Now that advertisers are paying for each thousand delivered, newspapers are being audited and penalized for papers/flyers that are not delivered.
Will advertisers be willing to absorb increased costs?
3 - Costs
The majority of flyers go unread. From an advertiser’s perspective that hasn’t been all bad since so many are still read. But that’s changing. As newsprint costs continue to go up and delivery costs increase due to labour and fuel prices, advertisers are putting pressure on newspapers.
Newspapers are facing the daunting task of delivering more flyers to a decreasing readership for less. Sooner or later there will be a tipping point, the point at which paper, printing and distribution costs will outstrip the returns. That time is coming sooner than most retailers and newspapers realize.
When do you think we will reach the tipping point?
In Conclusion
Beyond the financial costs, though still most important today, society’s move to reduce waste and the impact on the environment will play an increasing role in the death of print flyers and the subsequent death of newspapers. The amount of waste the industry produces is astronomical. As with the move to reduce bulk mail (Canada, US), when consumers demand no delivery of vast amounts of paper, the flyer industry will be in crisis and a large number of papers will fail.
In my next post, the last in the series, we will look at the newspaper industry through the eyes of the reader. Stay tuned for the last post:
Part Six – The Reader
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